Research
Original cuts built from primary records. Each article makes one claim, shows the evidence, and names the boundary where the conclusion can fail.
Latest · Aug 2, 2026
PJM's demand forecast and generation queue run on different clocks
PJM's 2026 forecast puts 95% of peak-load growth through 2035 in an adjustment layer, while successful generation projects reached operation in a median 5.2 years.
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Archive
Newest firstJul 11, 2026
Capital / Power
The ramp vs. reality: scoring the decade's most aggressive AI forecast
In June 2024, Situational Awareness put numbers and dates on the AI buildout — trillion-dollar clusters, gigawatt datacenters, power as the binding constraint. Two years in, our own measured data says the 'aggressive' curve is the one reality is tracking.
Jul 11, 2026
Capital / Method
We tested the most-watched leading indicator in AI — it has no lead
Everyone assumes hyperscaler capex pulls supplier revenue with a tradeable lag. We built the panel and measured it: the signal has no forward information — because a supplier's revenue is the customer's capex.
Jun 30, 2026
Compute / Trade
The chip boom is the only industrial growth in either superpower
Two governments' own statistics, from opposite ends of the supply chain, now tell the same story: semiconductors are carrying the entire industrial economy of both the US and China.
Jun 26, 2026
Memory / Trade
61% of South Korea's memory now ships to Greater China
We mapped where Korea's memory chips actually go, using customs data. The concentration — and the near-total absence of direct US imports — is its own story.
Jun 20, 2026
Memory / Pricing
A free memory-price signal that tracks SK hynix at r = 0.83
Memory pricing data is expensive. We derived a free proxy from customs data and validated it against what SK hynix and Micron actually disclose.