The BuildoutReport

The map

The buildout as one system, seen from above. Every dataset in the repo becomes a flow on this map — money entering on the left, silicon shipping on the right. Where we hold primary data the map is crisp and animated; where we don't, it is deliberately blurry — and every blur is a research project waiting to sharpen it.

$412B
5-hyperscaler capex, CY2025 (SEC)
$94.6B
Korea memory exports 2025 — vs $42.9B at the 2023 trough
61.3%
of Korea's memory ships to Greater China (2024)
0.4%
ships to the US directly — demand arrives inside assembled systems
2025measured · destination split estimated from 2024 shares
Memory exports $94.6B (+121% off the 2023 trough), ASP near records, cohort capex $412B.
SOUTH KOREA · CUSTOMSexports $94.6BCloud & AI demandthe world's compute billcloud rev $318BAmazoncapex $132BGooglecapex $91.4BMicrosoftcapex $83.1BMetacapex $69.7BOraclecapex $35.5BThe capex poolwhat the five spend$412B/yrUS gridelectricityoutput +10% vs 2020AcceleratorsNVIDIA · AMD · ASICsnot yet ingestedData centersshells · cooling · power gearnot yet measuredSK hynixDRAM · HBM — KRASP +6.8%/q avgSamsungDRAM · NAND · HBM — KRno split disclosedMicronDRAM · HBM — USASP +8.5%/q avgTSMCfoundry · CoWoS — TWnot yet ingestedGreater Chinaassembly$58.0BVietnamSamsung assembly$9.8BOther Asiaincl. Taiwan$19.0BUnited Statesdirect$0.4BRest of worldJP · SG · other$7.4BTHE DEMANDTHE MONEYTHE POOLWHAT IT BUYSTHE BOTTLENECKWHERE IT SHIPS
How to read the map

Money enters on the left, silicon ships on the right. Every link's particle stream is sized by real dollars per year.

  • solid — measured, a committed primary source
  • dashed — estimated / extrapolated, stated assumption
  • not measured yet — a “?” link
  • blurred node — no primary data ingested yet
  • heat halo — memory price signal (ASP)

Click any node for its dossier: what we measure, from where, and the open questions that would sharpen the blur. Raw numbers live in the data room.

The read

This is the layer above the filings. In 2023 the map already showed the squeeze loading: memory exports at $42.9B with ASP at decade lows, while the capex lane inflected from $154B toward $412B. Everyone buying compute was about to need memory nobody was pricing in — the kind of call that was obvious in the flow data before it was consensus. By 2025, exports hit $94.6B. The point of the map is that the next one of these should be visible here first: watch which lane heats while its supply lane stays flat.

Method — every solid link is a committed primary/first-party source (SEC capex & segment revenue; UN Comtrade customs). Dashed links state their assumption; 2026–27 are a capped trailing trend, a model — not a forecast. Scope caveats: cloud revenue ≠ AI revenue; capex ≠ chips only; Korea customs covers all memory end-markets (phones, PCs, servers), and traces manufacturing geography, not final demand. HBM has no customs line anywhere — which is why the accelerator↔memory links stay blurry until vendor-disclosure proxies land.