A free memory-price signal that tracks SK hynix at r = 0.83

Spot and contract memory prices are sold by a short list of research firms for real money. But there is a free signal hiding in customs data.

Every customs record carries both value and weight. Divide them — export value ÷ net weight — and you get an implied average selling price ($/kg). Track its quarter-over-quarter change and you have a memory-price proxy that costs nothing.

Does it actually work? We checked it against the ASP changes Micron and SK hynix disclose themselves: r = 0.83 versus SK hynix's disclosed DRAM ASP (QoQ, n = 15 quarters), r = 0.71 versus Micron's. The proxy tracks the Korean producers best — which makes sense, since Korea's customs data is Korea-origin output. Through the 2022–23 downturn and the 2024–25 AI upcycle, the customs line moves with what the companies report.

The honest caveat: the 6-digit HS code blends DRAM and NAND, whose price cycles can diverge by 20–40 points in a single quarter — which is exactly why the correlation is 0.83 and not 0.95. The fix is Korea's 10-digit customs codes, which split DRAM (8542.32.1010) from NAND (8542.32.1030) — the next upgrade. We label the implied-ASP line a proxy, not a fact — and attach a source to every number we publish. That transparency is the point.